基于多元线性回归模型的区域房地产投资环境评价——以武汉城市圈为例

The evaluation of regional real estate investment based on a multiple linear regression model: the case of Wuhan urban agglomeration

房地产业是社会经济中的重要领域,随着"武汉城市圈"进程的不断加快,对其房地产市场投资环境产生了不同程度的影响。本文结合定性定量研究方法,基于多元线性回归投资决策模型,估算出2013年武汉城市圈内9座城市的商品房理论销售均价,并与2013年实际商品房销售均价进行对比,分析各市房地产投资市场,以此判断房地产投资环境;根据研究结论提出具有针对性的对策建议,为房地产业研究与政府土地管理提供参考。

The real estate industry is an important component of the economy. It has a high value-added function, and can provide both high returns and low risk to investors. Investment decisions should be therefore objective and based on al available information. The acceleration of Wuhan urban agglomeration has varying effects on the real estate investment environment in different cities. This paper combines qualitative and quantitative methods to explore these effects. Multiple linear regression is used to estimate the price of commercial housing in nine cities in 2013. The real estate investment market is evaluated by comparing theoretical and actual prices. Based on these results, guidelines are presented to provide a reference for real estate investors and government land management departments.