考虑外部环境的电网故障概率模型综述

Survey on Power System Contingency Probability Models Considering Ambient Factors

电网故障概率是评估电网风险、制订电网安全标准、制订设备运维策略的重要基础数据。外部环境特别是气象条件、树障等对故障概率有重大影响。收集整理了国内外较为成熟的考虑外部环境的电网故障概率模型,包括经典的恒定故障率模型、两气候状态故障概率模型、基于回归算法的故障概率模型、基于灰色模糊理论的故障概率模型、考虑树障影响的故障概率模型等。由于目前电网故障历史统计数据仍不能支撑详细的电网故障概率模型,因此现阶段可首先应用两气候状态故障概率模型,并继续完善和细化电网故障历史数据的收集工作,持续提高电网故障概率模型和数据的详细程度和准确性。

Probability of power system contingency is fundamental to assessing power system risk,formulating power system safety standards and operational strategies for power system devices. Ambient factors,especially weather conditions and vegetation,have remarkable influence on contingency probability. Several approximately mature power system contingency probability models worldwide considering ambient factors are collected,including the classical constant failure rate model,the two-state weather model,the regression model,the grey fuzzy model,and the vegetation-related model. Since the historical fault data of power system collected so far are not enough to support a detailed contingency probability model,it is proposed that the two-state weather contingency probability model can be constructed using available history data,and more details of fault data should be collected to improve the comprehensiveness and precision of contingency probability.