摘要
为了研究深水航道船舶通航安全风险的科学应对措施,文章对深吃水船舶的搁浅风险展开研究,结合船舶下坐、纵倾、横倾对船舶吃水的影响,通过蒙特卡洛概率仿真法探讨不同航速下的船舶搁浅概率。仿真结果表明,船速越大船舶的搁浅概率就越大,同样水深和船速的情况下,船舶尺度越大搁浅概率也相对较高,所以可通过船速的限制来有效降低船舶搁浅风险,对于大尺度的深吃水船舶可以通过减载、降速和拖轮护航相结合的方法来确保其安全航行。
To study the ship navigation safety risk control measures, the paper researched on the deep-draft vessel grounding risk. Based on the ship squat, heel and trim, the ship grounding probability under different speed were discussed through the Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation results showed that the faster the speed of the ship sailing the bigger the probability of ship grounding, under the condition of same water depth and ship speed and ship dimensions stranded, the bigger of the ship dimensions the greater the probability was relatively high. So limiting vessels speed could be used to effectively reduce the risk of ship sailing, for large scale of deep-draft vessels by lightening, slowing down and tug escort a combination of methods to ensure the safe navigation.
出处
《现代交通技术》
2015年第4期80-83,共4页
Modern Transportation Technology
关键词
通航风险
船舶吃水
搁浅概率
蒙特卡洛仿真
navigation risk
ship draft
grounding probability
monte carlo simulation
