基于宏观经济指标的全社会用电量预测方法研究

Research on Total Electricity Consumption Forecasting Based on Macroeconomic Variables

宏观经济同全社会用电量呈现出一定程度的波动相关性,以经济指标走势为参考依据,可以从社会发展角度判断电量的预期增长范围。文章通过对江苏省宏观经济指标的分析和提取,结合全省实际的全社会用电量情况,密切跟踪宏观经济发展态势,研究影响电量发展的经济因素变化规律和轨迹;建立基于经济发展轨迹和地域特征的电量预测模型,实现计算机系统化建设;全面准确地把握全社会用电量走势,主动适应江苏地区经济社会发展的需要。

It is known that total electricity consumption shows relativity with macro economy. As the rages ot electricity growth could be judged by the tendency of macroeconomic variables,this paper proposed a forecasting method for total electricity consumption. The method integrated Jiangsu province economic development,actual conditions of electricity, relations between electricity and macroeconomic variables. In order to implement systematic construction,a prediction model was established based on economic development tracks and regional features. Accordingly,the tendency of total electricity consumption would be mastered accurately to actively adapt future requirements of Jiangsu economic development.