中国棕榈油进口贸易的周期分析

Analysis on the Cycles of Palm Oil Imports in China

利用海关统计数据,运用HP滤波法分析了我国棕榈油进口贸易的基本特征和波动周期。研究表明,1996年1月至2015年4月期间棕榈油进口量可划分为7个周期,平均长度为31个月,呈现"峰位降低,谷位上升,振幅减小"的增长型态势;平均扩收比例为1.37,进口仍处于增长期,但扩张能力较弱;棕榈油进口贸易具有规模增长迅速、来源地和口岸高度集中、品种相对集中的特点;进口波动周期形成受价格、国际环境、国内贸易政策等多种因素的影响。

The cycles of palm oil imports in China were identified by the HP filter while the characteristics and causes are also analyzed. Result shows that the import quantities of palm oil from January 1996 to April 2015 can be divided into seven cycles with the average length of 31 months, the feature of which may be summarized as ＂lower peak, higher trough and narrower amplitude＂; the average expansion shrinkage ratio is 1.37 which means that the import of palm oil is still increasing but the expansion becomes weak; palm oil imports are expanding quickly,concentrated in sources and imported ports and focus on liquid products;the process of the import cycle formation is affected by a variety of factors, in special the price volatility, and changes in international circumstances and domestic trade policies.