基于缓冲区和挣值分析的项目成本与进度风险预警

A Method of Risk Warning for Project Cost and Schedule Based on Buffer and Earned Value Analysis

为弥补挣值分析法不具有对项目成本与进度风险量进行测评的缺陷,在挣值分析法的基础上,提出了运用缓冲区定期监测项目成本与进度风险动态变化的定量方法。该方法定义了项目成本与时间的动态缓冲区,用于表示项目成本与工期在受控范围内的变化量,并运用蒙特卡罗仿真法获取动态缓冲区尺寸;在此基础上,结合挣值分析指标,构建了项目成本与进度风险动态预警指标,对预警指标值的范围进行划分与说明。并以某弹体分系统中尾段子系统初样研制项目为例演示了该方法的使用过程,表明该方法具有良好的有效性与可操作性。

This paper proposes a quantitative method of regular monitoring the dynamic change of project cost and schedule risk using buffer based earned value analysis method to against the defect of the earned value analysis method which does not evaluate project cost and schedule risk. The dynamic buffers of project cost and time are defined,which indicates the variable amount of project cost and duration in the controlled range,and monte carlo simulation is applied to obtain the dynamic buffers size. Based on them,combined with the earned value analysis indexes,the indexes of dynamic risk warning for project cost and schedule are made and the dynamic warning value ranges are divided and explained. Finally,the application process of the proposed method is illustrated by a case study of tail subsystem in a missile system. This proves the method effective and maneuverable.