基于GIS的保障房空间分布对租售比的影响

Influence of Spatial Distribution of Security Housing on Rent-Sale Ratio Based on GIS

保障房的供应对于商品房市场起到一定的分流作用,又是影响房屋租售比的重要因素之一;商业配套、与CBD的距离、交通、教育资源等均会对租售比产生影响,但以往的研究没有注意到保障房建设对商品房市场存在的作用,因此,以南京市为例,利用2002~2014年各区保障房建设的历史数据与近5年南京市各大行政区租售比的平均数据,结合Arc Gis、SPSS等软件对数据进行实证分析,研究结果表明：保障房的供应量与租售比成显著负相关,即保障房供应量多的行政区,租售比较小,租赁市场相对活跃,反之,租售比值较大,则销售市场更为活跃。对购房投资而言,在保障房供应较多的区亦即租售比较低的区投资,能够更快的回收资本。

The supply of affordable housing will to an extent have effect on the commercial housing market,and it is also one of the important factors that influence the housing rental. Business matching,the distance of CBD,transportation,education resource, all of these will affect rent-sale ratio,but previous studies have not noticed the effects of affordable housing construction on commercial housing market. Taking Nanjing as an example,this study used the historical data （2002 to 2014） of affordable housing construction in major districts and the city’s recent five years average rent-sale ratio data and adopted ArcGis and SPSS software to conduct empirical analysis. Results show that the supply of affordable housing and the rental presents significant negative correlation,meaning that more affordable housing supply results in relatively smaller rental and thus relatively active leasing market. On the contrary,the larger rent-sale ratio leads to more active sales market. For investing the affordable housing, the region having plenty of housing supply,i.e.,low rent-sale ratio,presents faster capital recovery.