最优政府规模与经济增长:理论与证据

The Optimum Size of Government and Economic Growth:Theory and Evidence

引入政府支出挤出效应,借鉴三部门内生增长模型分析长期经济增长中政府支出存在最优规模水平;在此基础上,利用中国1994-2012年29个省区数据,构建包含制度因素的门槛面板模型进行实证检验。研究结果表明:政府规模对经济增长的影响具有显著的"门槛效应",其中政府支出规模存在双门槛水平,消费规模呈单一门槛特征;政府规模对经济增长的边际效应递减,存在非线性"倒U型"曲线关系,规模超过最优门槛临界值的省份主要集中于西部。最后,稳健性检验支持了文章主要结论。

This article introduces extrusion effect of government spending,analyzes the existence of optimal size of government spending in the long-term economic growth referring to endogenous growth model of three departments.On this basis,using the data of 29 provinces from 1994-2012 in China,we build panel threshold models including institutional factors to test empirically.Our study shows：（1）The size of government has a significant threshold effect on economic growth,the size of government spending has double threshold level,while the size of government consumption appears a single threshold characteristics.（2）The marginal effect of Government size on economic growth is diminishing,and non-linear＂inversed U＂curve relationship exists.The provinces of which sizes exceed the optimal threshold terminate are mainly centralized in the west.Finally,Robustness tests support the main conclusions.