“新常态”下短期我国人民币贬值原因探究及预测

Research and Forecast of China's RMB Devaluation in the Short Term under the New Normal

回顾整个2014年,我国人民币兑美元汇率已累计下跌达2.42%。人民币汇率问题的决定已不仅仅是由单一因素决定,而是政治、经济利益博弈的均衡作用。受我国经济"三期叠加"及我国经济发展新常态化的影响,经济增速有所回落。同时人民币与美元之间的存款利率逐渐收窄,美国经济复苏美元强势等因素影响,人民币小幅贬值预期趋强。作者从不同的角度来分析人民币贬值的原因,并认为在现代金融市场,预期对我国人民币汇率贬值起着决定性作用。同时也希望为我国人民币汇率市场化的改革提供一个有益的视角。

To review the whole of 2014, the RMB against the U.S. dollar has fallen by 2.42%. The decision of the exchange rate of the RMB is not only decided by the single factor, but by the equilibrium of the political and economic interests. Under the influence of economic development of our country ＂three periods＂ and our country ＂s economic development, the economic growth rate has dropped down. At the same time between the RMB and the U.S. dollar deposit interest rates gradually narrowed, the U.S. economic recovery and other factors, such as the U.S. dollar, a slight depreciation of the RMB is expected to become stronger. From a different point of view, the author analyzes the reasons for the devaluation of the RMB, and believes that in the modern financial market, it is expected to play a decisive role in the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate. At the same time, it also hopes to provide a useful perspective for the reform of the RMB exchange rate market in China.