商业贸易发展对居民收入的影响分析

Analysis on the Impact of the Development of Commercial Trade on the Residents' Income

为了分析商业贸易发展对居民收入的影响程度,探寻促进居民有效增收的新路径,借助计量专用软件EVIEWS6.0,并利用向量自回归模型(VAR模型)进行实证分析。结果显示:商业贸易发展与城镇居民家庭人均收入之间存在着协整关系;商业贸易发展分别构成城乡居民人均收入增长的格兰杰原因,而城乡居民人均收入则均不是商业贸易发展的格兰杰原因;商业贸易发展对城乡居民人均收入均具有长期的正向冲击作用。因此,必须采取更加有效举措推动商业贸易健康发展,为居民持续增收提供广阔空间;要正确引导居民消费,发挥消费对商业贸易发展的刺激作用,以逐步形成商业贸易与居民收入相互促进的良性发展格局。

In order to analyze the impact of commercial trade on the residents＇ income,and explore the new path to promote residents＇ income effectively,the author used Eviews6. 0（ the special software for measurement）and the vector autoregressive model（ VAR model） to do empirical analysis. There are some results about this research. Firstly,the cointegration relationship exists between the development of commercial trade and urban resident＇s per capita income. Secondly,the development of commercial trade was the Grainger reason of per capita income growth of urban and rural residents,but the per capita income of urban and rural residents was not the Grainger reason of the commercial trade development. Thirdly,the development of commercial trade had a long-term positive impact on the per capita income of urban and rural residents. Therefore,on the one hand,we must take more effective measures to make the commercial trade healthy development,to provided vast space for the income growth of the residents. On the other hand,we should also guide the inhabitants expanding consumption correctly,to play an important role in the stimulation of consumption on the development of commercial trade. In this way,we can gradually form a benign development pattern between the commercial trade and the residents＇ income.