摘要
通过优化计划评审技术(PERT),用乐观估计时间、悲观估计时间和众数组成的方差来替换常用的三点时间估计法来估算高速公路项目的工期方差,解决了传统PERT中方差与最可能估计时间无相关性的问题,通过工期变化时间和工期期望值的比值,建立不同风险等级下的模糊数学隶属度函数,在给出一定置信区间的条件下,对高速公路项目的工期风险进行模糊等级评价。最后对建立在优化PERT上的模糊数学工期风险评价模型进行实例运算,表明了上述模型的具有较强的适用性。
By optimizing the Program Evaluation and Review Technique（ PERT）,with estimated time of optimism,pessimism and estimate the time and mode to replace the commonly used three methods to estimate the period of time estimated highway projects to solve the traditional PERT variance with the most likely estimate of the time no correlation issues,by changing the ratio of the duration of the time and duration of the expected value,the establishment of fuzzy membership function under different risk levels,under the conditions given certain confidence interval for the duration of the project risk fuzzy highway grade evaluation. Finally,based on the optimization of fuzzy mathematics PERT duration risk assessment model calculation examples,indicating a strong applicability of these models.
出处
《公路工程》
北大核心
2015年第4期245-248,254,共5页
Highway Engineering
