摘要
分析5种常见的气象条件对牵引供电系统状态的影响,提出采用前向逐步回归方法进行选元,利用多元回归分析建立牵引供电系统事故起数与气象因素之间的关联模型,并对牵引供电系统的事故起数进行预测。以某供电段3 a中牵引供电系统事故统计和该地区的气象条件作为样本进行多元回归分析,得到它们之间的回归模型,结果表明事故起数受该地区雷击次数和风速的影响较为显著,验证了所提方法的可行性。
The impacts of five common meteorological factors on the traction power supply system of highspeed railway are analyzed. The forward stepwise regression method is adopted to select the elements and an association model between the accident times and the meteorological factors is built by the multielement regressive analysis to predict the accident times. The traction power supply system accidents of a power supply section in three years and the meteorological factors of that region are taken as the samples to build the regression model by the multi-element regressive analysis and the results show that,the accident times are significantly affected by the lightning strike times and wind speed of that region,verifying the feasibility of the proposed method.
出处
《电力自动化设备》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第9期49-53,67,共6页
Electric Power Automation Equipment
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(U1234203)
江西省自然科学基金资助项目(20142BAB216027
20143ACB21019)
江西省教育厅科研基金资助项目(GJJ14390)~~
关键词
牵引
牵引供电系统
事故
气象条件
回归分析
模型
electric traction
traction power supply system
accidents
meteorological factor
regressive analysis
models
