基于ANP和证据理论的MPL培训中TEM效果评估

Evaluation of TEM effect in MPL training based on ANP and evidential theory

为了定量考核飞行训练机构多人制机组驾驶员执照(multi-crew pilot license,MPL)训练中威胁与差错管理(threat and error management,TEM)这一知识单元的训练效果,基于ICAO的PANS-TRG文件构建了面向MPL训练的TEM评估指标体系,采用网络层次分析与证据理论相结合的方法,对飞行训练机构C教学中的TEM训练效果进行评估。结果表明:C机构TEM训练效果处于良好与优秀之间,其评估量化值为80.105,有较大提升空间,应持续改进,所得结果与C机构实际情况基本吻合。同时,表明ANP与证据理论相结合的方法对TEM训练效果进行评估是行之有效的。

In order to check every flight training agency＇s training effect about the knowledge unit of threat and error management which faces multi-crew pilot license（MPL）, an index system based on ICAO＇s file named PANSTRG is established to evaluate the threat and error management which goes through MPL training all the while.The analytic network process method which is in combination with evidential theory is then proposed to evaluate the threat and error management training effect of flight training agency C. Results show that flight training agency C＇s training effect of threat and error management is evaluated between good and excellent. The assessment of its quantitative value is equal to 80.105, which represents great room for continuously improvement. And the experimental result is basically in consistent with the flight training agency C ＇s actual condition. At the same time, it shows that the combination method of analytic network process and evidential theory for the evaluation of threat and error management＇s training effect is effective.