中国经济增长源泉:要素投入、效率提升还是生态损耗?

Sources of Chinese Economic Growth: Factor Input,Efficiency Promotion,Ecological Loss?

如何在生态环境的极限内实现人类福利水平的不断提升是实现可持续发展的根本要求。在建设生态文明的诉求下,摆脱生态损耗难以衡量的矛盾,基于绿色增长核算框架,利用包含生态损耗的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,从索洛增长理论入手,采用中国1981-2012年的时间序列数据,对中国经济的增长源泉进行分析,测度了全要素生产率、物质资本、人力资本和生态损耗等因素对中国经济增长的贡献以及对增长波动的影响。研究发现,物质资本投入是现阶段中国经济保持高速增长的主要动力,但中国经济增长波动与全要素生产率的波动呈现较为一致的态势。

How to improve the level of human well - being within the limits of ecological environment is the fundamental requirement of sustainable development. Under the demands of ecological civilization construction, getting rid of the con- tradiction that the ecological loss is hard to measure, based on green growth accounting framework, using the contain ec- ological loss of Cobb - Douglas production function, from the perspective of the Solow Growth Theory, this paper using China＇s 1981 -2012 time series data, analyze the source of China＇s economic growth, to measure the contribution inclu- ding total factor productivity, physical capital, human capital and ecological loss to Chinese economic growth and volatil- ity of growth. The study finds that physical capital investment is the main driving force to maintain its rapid economic growth at present stage of China, but Chinese economic growth fluctuation and total factor productivity fluctuation present a relatively consistent state.