辽宁省区域可持续发展时空综合测度研究

Space-Time Synthetic Measurement of Regional Sustainable Development in Liaoning Province

在构建区域可持续发展评价指标体系和时空综合测度模型基础上,结合GIS、AHP及重心位移法等技术,对辽宁省各地市的区域可持续发展进行了时空综合测度研究。结果表明:2000—2012年,辽宁省各地市可持续发展协调度总体上体现为良好的发展态势,但部分地市具有一定的波动,甚至出现了下降的趋势。可持续发展综合能力总体上体现为良好的发展态势,多数地市呈现出一定的上升趋势,但上升空间较小,且部分地市起伏波动较大。大部分地市的经济与生态的可持续发展指数总体上相对较高,而社会可持续发展指数相对较低。这一表面看来的良好发展态势实际上是一种相对不健全的发展模式。东南部地区相对来说是可持续协调度和发展度的高密度区域,其协调性较好,经济、社会与生态的发展步调较为一致,可持续发展综合能力较强,发展速度也较快。

In this paper, a comprehensive measure of time-space for regional sustainable development in Liaoning province is conducted in order to analyze the integrated dual-dimensional space-time in Liaoning province. First, the evaluation index system and a compressive spatial-temporal model of sustainable development are designed with methods of G1S, AHP and gravity displacement to compressively analyze the sustainable development in Liaoning Province. Second, the characteristics and patterns of spatial structure are analyzed based on the result of sustainable development evaluation in Liaoning. The results are shown as follow. During 2000-2012, the coordination of sustainable development relatively reflected positive development trend throughout the whole cities of Liaoning Province, but the level of regional differences had the ups and downs, which indicates that the economic, social and ecological coordinated development have certain deterioration trends. The comprehensive capacity for sustainable development in Liaoning Province reflected positive development trend. Most of cities showed some upward trend of development, but these cities showed limiting capacity to sustain their development in the future and intensive fluctuations. The economic and ecological sustainability index was relatively high in most cities, while the social indicators had relative low level, which meant that economic and ecological sustainability was dominant, but the social sustainability was weak. Thus, the positive development on the surface actually was a relative unsound mode of development. It was not conducive to long- term stability for the regional sustainable development. During 2000-2012, the southeastern region of Liaoning Province was relative high density on the degree of sustainable development and coordination. This area had better coordination, which meant the economic, social and ecological development is simultaneous. This area showed strong capacity and fast speed for development.