山东省城市化效率与经济发展水平的时空耦合关系

Spatial-Temporal Coupling Relationship Between Urbanization Efficiency and Economic Development Level in Shandong Province

运用DEA模型、熵值法和耦合度模型分析了山东省17个地级市的城市化效率、经济发展水平以及城市化效率与经济发展水平的耦合度,并对其耦合关系进行了时空两个维度的分析和理论初探,提出了概念模型。结果表明:1总体上山东省城市化综合效率保持稳定,但需要增加投入水平来改善DEA有效的城市数量过少、规模报酬递增类型的城市过多的局面。2山东省经济发展经历了缓慢上升—急剧上升—稳定上升3个阶段,其区域差异大且差异性格局持续存在:经济发展水平较高的地市集中于山东省胶东半岛与济南都市圈,经济发展水平较低的地市集中于鲁南、鲁西地区。3山东省各地市耦合类型以中度耦合类型和高度耦合类型为主,低度耦合类型、中度耦合类型、高度耦合类型的城市具有较强的空间集中性和空间分布的年际变化的稳定性,而较高度耦合类型的城市对高度耦合类型的城市有很强的依附性。4城市化效率与经济发展水平存在动态耦合关系,目前山东省处于呈倒"U"型分布的左侧发展阶段,城市化效率及其与经济发展水平耦合度的提高可以促进区域经济水平的发展,区域经济水平的提高也能提高城市化效率并实现两者的最优。

This paper employs the DEA model, entropy method and a model for coupling degree to analyze urbanization efficiency, economic development level, and the coupling relationship between the two for the 17 cities in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2012, and theoretical exploration is conducted through two dimensions and a conceptual model is proposed. Conclusions are as follows. Firstly, the overall urbanization efficiency in Shandong Province remains stable, but investment levels need to be improved to increase the number of cities which urbanization efficiency is ＂1＂ and reduce the number of them exhibit increasing returns to scale. Secondly, economic development has experienced a slow rise, a sharp rise-a steady increase in three stages, the regional gap is large and persistent： the level of higher economic development of cities focuse on the Shandong Peninsula, Jinan metropolitan and level of lower economic development focuse on Lunan, Luxi area. Thirdly, the main types of coupling relationship in the cities are low coupling type; medium level coupling type, the highest coupling type, which are concentrated in spatial pattern and show stability in distribution of the annual variation, higher coupling type closes to the highest coupling type. Finally, There is a dynamic coupling relationship between urbanization efficiency and economic development level, the region is currently on the left of inverted ＂U＂ shaped distribution, improving urbanization efficiency and economic development can promote regional economic level and the development of regional economic level can improve urbanization efficiency and achieve optimal station.