碳排放区域差异与经济增长的关系

Research of Regional Differences of Carbon Emissions Based on Cluster Analysis and the Relationship Between Economic Growth

依据IPCC碳排放估算方法,测算了中国30个省市1999~2011年的CO2排放量,并选取碳排放总量、碳排放强度和人均碳排放量三个指标作为分类依据,运用多指标截面数据聚类法,将30个省划分为高、中、低三大碳排放区域。聚类结果显示,高碳排放区包括宁、内蒙古、晋、鲁、辽和冀六省,中碳排放区域包括粤、吉、苏、浙、豫、鄂、皖、黑、新、陕,低碳排放区域包括川、甘、赣、滇、沪、京、津、桂、渝、湘、闽、琼、青。并考察了碳排放与环境质量之间的关系,结果显示三大区域人均GDP和人均碳排放量之间均存在长期协整关系并且符合环境库兹涅茨曲线特征。

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change（ IPCC） carbon emissions calculation method,the paper calculates carbon emissions of 30 provinces in china between 1999 and 2011 except Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan. Selecting the amount of emissions、carbon intensity and per capita carbon emissions as three indicators,30 provinces are divided into three carbon emission region through cluster analysis of multivari- able sectional data. Clustering results show that high emission region includes Ningxia,Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,Shandong,Liaoning and Hebei. Moderate emission region have Anhui,Hubei,Zhejiang,Guangdong,Heilongjiang,Shaanxi,Jilin,Xinjiang,Guizhou,J iangsu and Henan. And low- carbon emission region including Jiangxi,Guangxi,Chongqing,Yunnan,Hunan,Sichuan,Shanghai,Fujian,Beijing,Hainan,Gansu,Qinghai and Tianjin. Besides,co- integration test and regression analysis was performed of carbon emissions and GDP per capita of the three groups. Results show that a co- integration relationship had long been exiting between them and fit the environmental Kuznets inverse U curve. It is predicted that the total carbon emission of the country will keep on increasing for a long time,however,with a growth rate of carbon emission lower than that of the GDP,which means the carbon emission intensity will keep on declining.