摘要
针对无损检测数据具有的不确定性和样本采集的局限性,提出可靠性评估指标——损伤检出概率(POD)函数形式选取及参数估计带来的困难,首先提出基于贝叶斯公式和最优POD函数选取方法。其次针对贝叶斯后验概率难于求解的问题,将基于因子简化的贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)作为评判最优POD函数的准则。最后,通过算例分析表明基于贝叶斯方法选取的.POD函数适用于无损检测技术的可靠性评估。
Uncertainty and limitations of sample collection for nondestructive test data brought about the difficulties in selecting and estimating the parameter of damage probability of detection(POD) function that used on reliability evaluation.Firstly,the selection method of optimal POD function was proposed based on Bayesian formula.Secondly,a simplified Bayesian information criterion(BIC) as the optimal POD function criterion was given to solve the problem of Bayesian posterior probability in a complex model.Finally,the example analysis indicates the selected POD function based on Bayesian rule can be applied to reliability assessment on the nondestructive test of aircraft structure.
出处
《焊接》
北大核心
2015年第8期38-42,75,共5页
Welding & Joining
关键词
无损检测
裂纹
损伤检出概率
贝叶斯方法
可靠性评估
nondestructive
crack
damage probability of detection(POD)
bay esian method
reliability evaluation
