中国GDP出口分解及贡献新测度

Decomposition of China's GDP Export and New Measure of Its Contributions

基于全球价值链分解方法,构建国家层面和产业层面GDP出口分解框架,分析中国出口对GDP及GDP增长的贡献和变化机制。研究发现,中国国家层面和产业层面出口对GDP及GDP增长的贡献均呈现先增后减的倒"U"形特征。制造业贡献起主导作用,需要巩固传统优势,培育新优势;占国内生产总值比重较大的服务业贡献相对较小,需要进一步提升国际竞争力;贡献的变化主要是基于产业增加值出口比重的增长,产业结构变动产生了一定的阻碍作用。

Based on decomposition methods of global value chain, this paper gives a complete GDP exports decomposition formula at the national and industrial level, and then examines the changes of China＇s exports and the contributions on economic growth. The study figures out that. The contribution China＇s exports to the GDP and GDP growth shows a inverted U type feature on the value-added methods both at the national level and industrial level. Manufacturing industrial have played a dominant role. Thus, to consolidate the traditional advantages and cultivate new advantages is needed. The contribution of service is relatively smaller accounted for a larger proportion of GDP. To further enhance international competitiveness is also needed. The changes is mainly because of the growing proportion of industrial value added exports, and the industry structure has had a certain impediment.