基于不同权重的栖息地指数模型预报阿根廷滑柔鱼中心渔场

Forecasting fishing ground of Illex argentinus based on different weight habitat suitability index in the southwestern Atlantic

本文根据2003-2009年1-5月和2011年1-5月西南大西洋海域阿根廷滑柔鱼(Illex argentinus)的生产数据,结合遥感获得的海表面温度(SST)和海表面高度(SSH)数据,利用不同权重的栖息地指数模型来预报阿根廷滑柔鱼的中心渔场。采用外包络法,利用作业次数与SST、SSH建立适应性指数(SI)模型,依据作业次数比重和产量比重来比较不同权重的算术加权模型(AWM),从而筛选出最佳模型,并对最佳模型进行验证。结果显示,确定AWM(a=0.3,SST权重为0.3,SSH的权重为0.7)为最佳模型,当栖息地适应性指数(HSI)大于0.6时,作业次数的比重为93.23%,产量比重为89.28%,当HSI小于0.4时,作业次数的比重为2.12%,产量比重为3.35%。利用2011年1-5月的生产数据和环境数据对AWM(a=0.3)进行验证,结果显示,在HSI大于0.6的海域,各月作业次数比重均在91%以上,产量比重均在95%以上。研究表明,在阿根廷滑柔鱼渔场形成中SSH比SST更为重要,基于SST和SSH的AWM(a=0.3)能够较好地预测西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼的中心渔场。

In this study,according to the Chinese squid fishing production data during the main fishing season （January to May） from 2003 to 2005,and 2011, combined with sea surface temperature （SST） and sea surface height （SSH） , We attempt to forecast fishing ground of Illex argentinus based on habitat suitability models with different weights. The suitability index was built by external envelope method, and the arithmetic weighted model （AWM） with different weights were compared and the best habitat suitability index （HSI） model was selected based on the percentage of fishing efforts （fishing days） and catch. Results show that,when HSI value was greater than 0. 6, the percentage of fishing efforts was 93.23% and the percentage of catch was 89.28% ,and when HSI value was less than 0. 4,the percentage of fishing efforts was 2. 12% and the percentage of catch was 3.35 % by using AWM （a=0.3,the weights of SST and SSH are 0. 3 and 0.7 respectively）. Compared with AWM with other four weights,the percentage of fishing efforts and of catch were larger when HS1 value was greater than 0. 6, and the percentage of fishing efforts and catch were smaller when HSI value was less than 0.4. Therefore,given to the percentage of fishing efforts and the percentage of catch,the AWM （a=0. 3） was selected to be the best HSI model, defined as HSI= O. 3SIssT q-O. 7SIssH ,indicating that SSH is more important than SST in estimating the HSI of squid. According to the data from January to May in 2011,we found that the main fishing ground is distributed in the waters with HSI more than 0. 6 from the AWM （a=0. 3）,and the percentage of fishing efforts reached more than 91% and the percentage of catch were above 950/00. The results indicate that SSH is more important than SST in the formation of fishing ground of Illex argentinus,and the AWM （a=0. 3） based on SST and SSH can better forecast the fishing grounds of Illex argentinus in the southwest Atlantic.