西藏水资源生态足迹评价与动态预测

The valuation and dynamic forecast of eclogical footprint of water resources in Tibet

水资源是人类生存之根本,是社会发展之命脉,随着水危机的日益加剧,水资源短缺已成为全球关注的热点问题.使用生态足迹模型评估了2003~2012年西藏自治区的水资源状况,结果表明：西藏水资源生态足迹2003~2008年间由0.015 4上升至0.021 2hm^2·人^-1,2009~2012年逐渐下降;10年平均水资源生态承载力和生态盈余分别为1.217 0和1.198 6hm^2·人^-1,2003~2012年,生态承载力和生态盈余均呈下降趋势.西藏第一产业水资源生态足迹比例高达90%,第二产业最低为1.07%.藏东南地区的水资源生态盈余明显高于藏北地区,其中拉萨与阿里地区最低;2003~2012年各区人均水资源生态盈余均呈下降趋势,林芝、山南、昌都下降较为显著.经模型预测,西藏2013~2017年的生态盈余仍呈下降趋势,西藏的水资源保护及可持续利用工作应尽快提上日程.

Water resource is vital to the survival and development of human beings.With the growing of water crisis,water shortage has become one of the most concerned issues in the world.This article estimated the water resource conditions in Tibet from 2003 to 2012based on ecological footprint model.The results indicate that the water resource footprint in Tibet increases from 0.0154hm2 per capita in 2003 to 0.0212hm2 per capita in 2008,and decreases by year from 2009 to 2012;the averaged ecological carrying capacity and the ecological surplus of water resources of the ten years are 1.217 0and 1.198 6hm2 per capita,respectively,and both indicate a downward trend.The proportion of ecological footprint in primary industry reaches up to 90%,and the secondary industry accounts only for 1.07%.The ecological surplus of water resources in the southeast Tibet is significantly higher than that in the northern Tibet;Lhasa and Ngari Prefecture are the lowest.The ecological surplus of water resource per capita in districts from 2003 to 2012shows a downtrend,especially,Nyingchi,Shannan and Chamdo shows a dramatic decline.According to the model prediction,the ecological surplus of water resources in Tibet from 2013 to 2017will continue to decrease,requiring that protection and sustainable utilization of water resources should be carried out as soon as possible.