1960～2012年气温突变下的两广地区干湿演变

The evolution of dry and wet under the background of the abrupt temperature change in Guangdong and Guangxi areas during 1960 to 2012

分析了1960~2012年两广地区的气候变化及旱涝时空演变特征,进而揭示了其干湿演变特征,旨在为研究气候变化、灾害防治、农业生产及作物适应性等提供依据.基于两广地区45个气象台站1960~2012年气温及降水观察资料,采用标准化降水指数计算两广地区的季节性和年尺度旱涝指数,并应用Mann-Kendall突变检验计算气温突变年份,进而分析气温突变前后旱涝强度、频率及覆盖度等的时空变化特征.研究表明,广西壮族自治区旱涝高发于广东省,广东省极端旱涝事件高发于广西;气温突变后,两广地区由暖湿化逐渐向冷干化转变,旱涝强度和旱涝频率降低,旱涝覆盖度增加.

Through analyzing the climate changes and the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of the drought and flood in Guangdong and Guangxi areas during 1960 to 2012,we have revealed the evolution characteristics of dry and wet in Guangdong and Guangxi areas and provided the basis for the study of climate change,disaster prevention,agriculture production and crop adaptability.The annual index and seasonal index of Guangdong and Guangxi areas are calculated using the standardized precipitation index with the temperature and precipitation data from 45 weather stations in Guangdong and Guangxi areas from 1960 to 2012.Then,the temperature mutation year is calculated by Mann-Kendall test so that we can analyze the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of the drought and flood intensity,frequency and coverage before and after the abrupt temperature change.Research shows that the frequency of drought and flood in Guangxi area is higher than Guangdong Province,but the extreme drought events in Guangdong Province are more frequent.And,the warming and wetting climate in Guangdong and Guangxi areas gradually transforms into the coding and drying climate after the abrupt temperature change.On the whole,the drought and flood intensity and their frequencies of Guangdong and Guangxi areas have been reduced,but their coverages are increased.