基于空间计量模型的中国东中部地区FDI时空演变格局研究

Changes of FDI spatial-temporal patterns in the eastern and central regions of China based on the spatial econometric models

以我国东中部202个地级以上城市为研究对象,利用空间自相关方法分析了2003~2012年东中部地区外商直接投资（Foreign direct investment,FDI）区位选择的时空演变格局,采用地理权重回归模型（GWR）分析了FDI区位选择的主要影响因素.空间自相关分析结果表明,东中部地区FDI集聚性逐渐减弱,其中,东部地区FDI的比重不断下降,而中部地区的比重不断上升,区域引资逐渐平衡.GWR模型的结果表明,市场规模、劳动力质量、集聚经济、科技创新以及国家政策与FDI均呈显著正相关,并且以环渤海地区为界,南方地区的FDI流入主要取决于市场规模和劳动力质量,而北方则主要受集聚经济和科技创新的影响.本研究可为区域引资格局的发展以及外资企业的区位选择提供决策支持.

The startling expansion of multinationals has made FDI（Foreign direct investment）an outstanding factor in driving global economic development.We selects 202 cities which have attracted most of the FDI in the eastern and central regions of China,as objectives.The time span of the research is from 2003 to 2012.The spatial autocorrelation which has been seldom used in FDI studies is adopted to explore the dynamics of FDI spatial-temporal patterns.Geographically weighted regression（GWR）,which is an effective method in revealing the relationship between non-stationary explanatory variables and dependent variable,is utilized to find out the determinants of FDI patterns.The results of spatial autocorrelation analysis indicate that the agglomeration phenomena of FDI have been weakened during the decade,and proportions of FDI in the eastern regions have been reduced gradually during the decade.Even so,the eastern regions are still dominating.The findings of GWR reveal that market size,labor quality,agglomeration economy,scientific innovation and national policies have significant and positive effects on FDI,and the effects of these determinants vary over space.The findings of this study will provide scientific guidance to balanced regional development as well as the location selection for foreign enterprises.