“怨恨”、“机会”与国内冲突的发生——基于索马里内战的个案研究

Grievance,Opportunity and the Outbreak Of Civil Conflicts:A Case Study of the Civil War in Somali

主流的观点认为国内冲突发生的原因是反叛的机会成本小于维持现状,而不是潜在反叛者对现有政治秩序的不满。本文通过对索马里内战(1987—2014年)成因的分析发现,这场战争是"怨恨"和"机会"共同作用的结果。一方面,文官政府尤其是巴雷执政期间的族群政治、南方对北方的政治经济压迫以及欧加登战争(1977—1978年)的失败,给内战埋下了"怨恨"的种子。另一方面,由弱势族群建立和掌握的军事组织、严重依赖对外援助的国民经济以及巴雷健康状况的恶化,则为反叛提供了"机会"。两者共同作用,最终导致了牵延日久的内战。

The mainstream argument holds that the cause of civil conflicts is the relatively low opportunity cost of rebellion rather than discontentment with the existing political order.Nonetheless,an empirical analysis of the Civil War in Somali(1987-2014) reveals that it is not only 'opportunity' but also 'grievance' that contributed to the outbreak of the war.Specifically,grievances arose from clannish politics,particularly during Mohamed Syid Barre's tenure,the South's political and economic exploitation of the North,as well as the humiliating defeat in the Ogaden War(1977-1978).In the meantime,military organizations created and controlled by minority clans,vulnerable economy highly dependent on foreign aid and Barre's deteriorating health gave potential insurgents the opportunity to revolt.The two groups of factors worked together and eventually led to the onset of the severe and long enduring civil war.