长江中下游地区双季早稻冷害、热害时空特征分析

Spatiotemporal characteristics analysis of cold and hot damage to double-season early rice(DSER) in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin

以长江中下游地区48个站点1961-2012年的气象资料为基础,利用统计分析、Mann-Kendall和小波分析的方法研究了早稻生长季前期冷害、后期冷害、后期热害的时空变化。结果表明:(1)52年来早稻生长季气温呈极显著升高趋势(>0.5℃/10a);(2)前期冷害和后期冷害均从2000年初开始出现减弱趋势,后期热害从2000年初开始有显著增强趋势;(3)空间分布上,前期冷害高风险区基本与山脉地形特征相吻合,而后期冷害与水系的分布相关性很高。

Based on meteorological data of 48 stations in lower-middle reaches of Yangtze River from 1961 to 2012, this paper studies spatiotemporal change of DSER＇ s cold damage in early growing period and cold/hot damage in later growing period by use of statistics analysis, Mann-Kendall and wavelet analysis methods. The results show that： （1）the growing season average temperature of DSER has an significantly increasing trend （〉0.5℃/10a） during the past 52 years; （2）cold damage in both early and later growing periods decreased after 2000, and hot damage in late period increased significantly; （3）the spatial distribution of early stage cold damage coincide with landform characteristics, but late stage cold damage is correlated with river system distribution.