中国清代历史水灾时空特征研究

Study on spatiotemporal characteristics of historical flood in Qing Dynasty

研究历史灾害,有助于了解灾害的发生规律及特点,为自然灾害的风险防范提供基础资料。基于《中国三千年气象记录总集》中的历史水灾资料,建立了清代(1644-1911年)水灾数据库,并从时间和空间两方面分等级(轻中重灾)统计分析清代水灾的格局特征,总结了其发生规律。研究结果表明:清代共发生水灾19009县次,平均每年发生约71县次,年际波动大;清代后期的水灾总县次多于前期总县次,水灾发生呈东多西少的空间格局,主要集中在长江中下游及黄河下游及其它富水区。

Research on disasters in history can help us to explain its occurrence regularity. In this paper, based on the historical flood data in＂A compendium of Chinese Meteorotogical Records of the last 3,000 years＂, a database of flood in Qing Dynasty（ A. D. 1644- 1911 ） was established. The paper statistically analyzes spatiotemporal pattern characteristics of flood severity and sumarizes their occurrence regularity. The conclusion shows that： （1）In total, 19009 county-times of flood disasters happening in the Qing Dynasty, and about 71 county-times of per year on average. The annual fluctuation is obvious. （2） The flood frequency in the late Qing Dynasty is higher than that in the early stage. （3） The spatial pattern of flood disaster frequency is high in the east and low in the west. It mainly concentrates on the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River, the lower reaches of Yellow River and other areas which have abundant water resources.