大型海水淡化工程风暴潮灾害风险评价体系研究

Research on storm surge disaster risk evaluation system of large-scale seawater desalination project

针对风暴潮灾害对大型海水淡化工程的影响,选取风暴潮危险性、海水淡化工程脆弱性评价指标,采用层次分析法,构建了海水淡化工程风暴潮风险评价模型;并以天津为例,对不同海水淡化工艺进行了风暴潮风险评估。结果显示,在天津沿海地区采取4种方案的海水淡化工艺,其风暴潮灾害风险都是可接受的。由计算风险值可知,取用冷取水或海滩井取水的海水淡化工程,风暴潮灾害风险较低;其次为采取热法工艺的海水淡化工程;在选取直接取水方式的膜法海水淡化技术时,应加强风暴潮灾害的防护。

In view of storm surge disaster＇s influence on large-scale seawater desalination project, this paper con- structs seawater desalination project risk evaluation model by selecting evaluation indices of storm surge hazand and seawater desalination project vulnerability, combining use of analytic hierarchy process （AHP）. Then a case study of storm surge disaster risk evaluation was provided, which included projects using different seawater desalination technologies. Results show that the storm surge disaster risk of seawater desalination process using all 4 plans in Tianjin coastal area is acceptable. The use of cooling water or beach wells for seawater desalination project, the storm surge disaster risk is lower, followed by adopting the method of thermal process of seawater desalination pro- ject, and the membrane desalination technology using the method of direct seawater intake should strengthen the storm surge protection.