黑龙江省国有林区森林资源-环境-经济复合系统可持续发展预警模型构建

Building Early Warning Model of Sustainable Development of the FEES in the State-owned Forest Zone in Heilongjiang Province

以黑龙江省国有林区森林资源-环境-经济复合系统(FEES)的可持续良性发展为目标,结合黑龙江省国有林区自身特点,利用解析结构模型筛选预警指标体系;通过样本训练和结构优化,建立了BP神经网络的预警模型。可持续发展预警分析表明:预警模型选用指标合理,预警结果拟合度较高;从中期看,黑龙江省国有林区的FEES可持续发展水平较为健康,整体发展趋势较好。

In order to achieve the sustainable and benign development of the FEES in the state-owned forest zone in Heilongjiang Province,taking the self-characteristics,we screened the warning index system by analyzing the structure. We built up an early warning model based on BP neural network by training the samples and optimizing the compositions. By analyzing the alert of sustainable development,the indexes of the early warning model were reasonable with a relatively higher fitting degree. In the medium term,the FEES in the state-owned forest zone in Heilongjiang Province achieved a healthy and sustainable development with desired overall development trend.