基于偏最小二乘回归分析的装备研制费用估算方法及应用

Method and Application of Equipment Development Cost Estimation Based on Partial Least Squares Regression Analysis

介绍了寿命周期费用的概念以及各阶段分布情况;针对经典回归分析的不足,采用偏最小二乘回归分析对某装备样本数据进行分析建模;建立了研制费用与几个相关指标的回归方程,并将估算结果与经典的回归分析进行对比,验证模型的合理性。该模型能较好地反映了费用与各指标之间的关系,对后续寿命周期费用的分析与控制有一定的意义。

In this paper, the concept of life cycle cost and the distraction of different period were introduced. And as to the shortcoming of classical regression analysis, PLS was used for modeling on some date of equipment, then establishing an equation of development cost and the other relevant index. At last, the results were compared with the classical method and the rationality of this model was also verified. This model could reflect the relationship of development cost and index effectively, and contribute to the subsequent analysis and control of life cycle cost.