中国农业生产效率变动的驱动因素研究

A study of the driving factors of agricultural production efficiency in China

运用DEA-Malmquist生产率指数法,对1978-2011年省级农业TFP进行了数量测算与系统分解,并细致考察了其时序演变差异、地理空间分布与分组增速效率等特征。测算发现:农业TFP增长源泉主要是由技术进步率与技术效率双轮驱动的,但技术效率的驱动作用有限。农业TFP与技术进步率指数呈顺周期变化,与技术效率指数有逆周期波动阶段。农业TFP效率变动具有比较严重的地理空间上的非均衡性。省际间各指数差异显著,农业技术效率指数全国各区域普遍不高,中西部地区的农业前沿技术进步率比较糟糕,但各直辖市主要效率指数增长效应显著。农业TFP及其分解指数"发散效应"明显,"收敛效应"与"外溢效应"趋势不显著。除了要素输入,经营模式创新更显重要,"双轮驱动"应成为未来中国农业经济增长方式转变与可持续发展的路径。

This paper estimates and decomposes the provincial agricultural TFP from 1978 to 2011 by DEA - Malmquist productivity index method, and observes carefully the temporal evolution of difference, regional distribution and group growth efficiency. The study finds that agricultural TFP growth is mainly determined by the rate of technological progress and technical efficiency, but the role of technical efficiency is limited. Agricultural TFP and technological progress index show cyclical changes, and technical efficiency index with inverse cycle stages. Agricultural TFP efficiency change is unbalanced. The difference is significant among provinces. Agricultural technical efficiency index is generally not high. Agricultural frontier technology progress is satisfied in the Central and Western regions. Growth effect of the main efficiency index is obvious in municipalities. The main efficiency index is obvious in divergence effect, but the trend of convergence effect and spillover effect is not significant. Besides the factor input, business model innovation is more important. So agricultural economic growth and sustainable development should be the path of the mode of two wheels drive in the future.