基于卢卡斯溢出模型的人力资本对耕地产出贡献率的测算——以甘肃省为例

Calculation of Contribution Rate of Land Output Based on Lucas Spillover Model of Human Capital——Taking Gansu Province as an Example

[目的]从农业从业人员人力资本存量角度分析农业从业人员所拥有的人力资本对提高耕地产出率的贡献率,为合理有效利用土地资源提供了理论依据。[方法]采用卢卡斯溢出模型作为分析工具,运用SPSS 20.0软件,利用时间序列数据(2002—2012年甘肃省统计数据)对农业从业人员的人力资本存量对提高耕地产出率的贡献率进行分析。[结果]甘肃省农业从业人员的人力资本对提高耕地产出率的贡献率和影响率分别为45.26%和5.55%;物质资本对其贡献率和影响率分别为20.29%和2.49%。[结论]甘肃省农业从业人员的人力资本对提高耕地产出率的贡献率远大于物质资本的贡献率。因此,开发并利用好农业从业人员的人力资本将成为提高耕地产出率的关键之所在。

[Objective] We attempts to expound the really important function of farmer＇s human capital in terms of improving land output from the angle of farmer＇s human capital stock for the first time in order to provide a theoretical basis for reasonable and effective utilization of land resources. [Methods] We analyzed the contribution of farmer＇s human capital stock in terms of improving land output by using the analyzing tools, revenue model and Lucas Spillover model, SPSS 20.0 software, time-series data（statistical data of Gansu Province in 2002-- 2012）. [Results] In Gansu Province, the rates of the contribution and the influence of the farmer＇s human capital to land output were 89.46% and 10.98%, and these of material capital to land output were 8.26%o and 1.01%, which meant that the contribution rate of human capital to land output was far higher than that of material capital. [Conclusion] Properly developing and employing human capital will make a great difference on improving land output.