渭河流域水文过程变异诊断

Variation Diagnosis During Hydrological Processes in the Weihe River Basin

运用滑动秩和检验法、Mann-Kendall检验法及累积曲线检验法三种方法,对渭河流域20个水文站49 a的年径流序列进行分析,揭示流量特征值存在的变异特征、时空分布及变异程度,结合气候变化及人类活动等影响因素分析,进一步阐明渭河流域河川径流时空变异的主要成因。结果表明:3种方法分析结果基本一致,所选水文站水文序列变异点多集中于1969—1971年、1986—1994年、1996—1997年3个时段,水文变异主要由区域高强度人类活动下的下垫面及气候影响下的降水量改变所致。

Based on the recognition and examination of change-point theories and methods, the sliding rank, Mann-Kendall test and cumulative curve were applied in the annual runoff series of 20 hydrological stations in 49 years of the Weihe River basin. Thus the spatial and temporal distribution and the degree of the change-points were described in detail when the variable series type had been diagnosed. Further the spatial and temporal characteristics and main root causes were clarified connecting with the influence factors such as climate change and human activities. In general, it shows that the results of the three kinds of methods are basically consistent and the change-points mostly appear in the periods of 1969-1971, 1986-1994 and 1997-2004 due to the change of the river natural form caused by regional intense human activity and the change of precipitation.