财政支出对产业结构升级的空间效应研究

The Spatial Effect of Public Expenditures on Industrial Structure Upgrading

将财政支出对产业结构升级的"定向诱导"突破到"区位定向诱导"是当前研究的薄弱环节。文章从决定产业结构的地区异质性、财政支出的本地效应与外部性以及遗漏因素出发,利用空间计量经济学建模技术,构建了财政支出-产业结构的空间杜宾模型(SDM),并以安徽省为例,实证分析了财政支出在产业升级方面的直接效应、间接效应与总效应等。研究表明:(1)利用空间计量经济学建模技术,可以将财政支出对产业结构升级的"定向诱导"突破至"区位定向诱导";(2)财政支出对产业结构升级的效应研究与评估,要从本地效应转向空间外部效应;(3)应遵循"区位定向诱导"原则,充分释放财政支出对产业结构升级的正面效应,抑制负面效应,最大化叠加效应。文章研究对制定合适的财政支出政策,进而促进经济发展转型期产业结构的优化升级具有重要启示。

A breakthrough in the effect of public expenditures on industrial structure upgrading from directional guidance to location-oriented directional guidance is the weak link of current research.Starting from regional heterogeneity determining industrial structure,local effects and externality of public expenditures,and omission factors,this paper uses spatial econometric modeling technique to build a spatial Dubin model of public expenditures and industrial structure.Then taking Anhui province as an example,this paper empirically presents direct,indirect and total effects of public expenditures on industrial upgrading.It arrives at the conclusions as follows：firstly,the adoption of spatial econometric modeling technique can lead to a breakthrough in the effect of public expenditures on industrial structure upgrading from directional guidance to location-oriented directional guidance;secondly,the research and assessment of the effect of public expenditures on industrial structure upgrading should shift from local effect to spatial external effect;thirdly,the principle of location-oriented directional guidance should be followed to make full use of the positive effect of public expenditures on industrial structure upgrading,inhibit the negative effect and maximize the superimposed effect.It has important implications to formulate appropriate public expenditures policy and promote optimization and upgrading of industrial structure during economic transition period.