土地财政与产业结构服务化——一个解释产业结构服务化“中国悖论”的新视角

Land Finance and Industrial Structure Tertiarization:A New Perspective of an Explanation of“Chinese Paradox”of Industrial Structure Tertiarization

产业结构服务化是世界经济发展和转型升级的一般规律,然而在中国却存在一个悖论:服务业占GDP的比重偏低,尚未成为经济发展的主导产业。文章引入土地财政因素,对两部门非均衡增长模型进行拓展,基于中国1999—2013年35个大中城市的面板数据,运用两步系统广义矩估计法实证分析了土地财政对产业结构服务化的影响。结果发现:土地财政虽有助于加快工业化进程,但对产业结构服务化产生了显著的抑制作用。这说明土地财政的确是产业结构服务化迟滞的一个重要因素。进一步研究发现:土地财政对产业结构服务化的影响存在显著的区域差异,土地财政显著促进了东部地区产业结构服务化,但对西部地区产业结构服务化则产生了负面影响。

Tertiarization of industry structure is the general rule of world economic development and the transformation and upgrading.However,there is a paradox in China：the proportion of service industry in GDP is lower,and it has far become the dominant industry of the economic development.This Paper intoduces land finance and extends twosector non-equilibrium growth model.Based on panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities of China from 1999 to 2013,this paper uses the two-step system GMM estimation method to empirically test the relationship between land finance and the tertiarization of industrial structure.Results show that although land finance has accelerated the process of industrialization,it inhibits the evolution of industrial structure from industrialization to tertiarization.It shows that land finance is actually an important factor of the stagnant evolution of industrial structure.Further study indicates that the effect of land finance on the teriarization of industrial structure differs with regions：land finance promotes transformation of industrial structure in eastern regions from industrialization to tertiarization,but has a negative effect on the transformation of industrial structure from industrialization to tertiarization in westem regions.