基于MYCIN不确定因子的区间灰数应急决策方法

Interval Grey Numbers Emergency Decision-making Methods Based on MYCIN Uncertainty Factor

主要研究了方案的指标值为区间灰数的快速应急决策方法。将MYCIN不确定因子融合到灰色决策理论中,通过计算各方案在不同指标下的MYCIN不确定因子并对其进行融合,确定最佳决策方案。建立了基于证据推理的应急决策方法,给出了区间灰数决策方法步骤;通过案例分析结果验证了所提方法的有效性。

This paper focuses mainly on emergency decision-making problems when attribute values of correspond- ing alternatives are interval grey numbers. The MYCIN certainty factor is integrated into grey decision-making theory. By computing the certainty factor of all alternatives in different indices and fusion of them, the best alter- native is obtained. Emergency decision-making method based on evidence reasoning is established and the procedure of interval grey numbers decision-making is presented. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the efficiency of the approach proposed in this paper.