内蒙古牧区家畜死亡率与气象灾害关系研究

Analysis on The Relationship between Animal Mortality and Meteorological Disasters in Inner Mongolia Pastoral Area

利用畜牧业统计资料及其气象资料,选择适用的灾害标准,分析了内蒙古牧区主要气象灾害时空分布特征,研究了不同气象灾害与家畜死亡率的关系。结果表明:(1)春旱、夏旱、黑灾主要出现在内蒙古中西部牧区,出现的概率多,影响范围大,持续时间长,危害程度重。白灾主要发生在内蒙古荒漠草原牧区、典型草原偏北牧区和草甸草原牧区,以中部偏北牧区发生概率较高,危害程度重。寒潮则是全区性灾害,但以中部牧区遭受寒潮侵害的次数最多,危害的程度最重,其次是东部牧区,西部牧区最少。(2)内蒙古牧区家畜死亡率随着时间推移具有十分明显的下降趋势,但各类气象灾害灾情指数的下降趋势并不明显,说明随着生产力水平不断提高,草地畜牧业抗御自然灾害的能力明显增强,家畜死亡率降低。

By using the animal husbandry statistical data and its meteorological data and selecting the suitable disaster standards, the characteristics of the spatial and temporal distribution of main meteorological disasters in Inner Mongolian pastoral area were analysised, and the relationship of the different meteorological disasters and animal mortality was studied. The results showed that： （1） Spring drought, summer drought, black disaster occurred mainly in central and western pastoral area in Inner Mongolia, with high probability, large-scale effect, long duration, and severe damage. Heavy snow occurred mainly in Inner Mongolia desert steppe pas- toral area, north pastoral area of typical steppe, meadow steppe pastoral area, while north central pastoral area had higher incidence and more severe damage. As a prefecture wide disaster, cold wave occurred throughout the area, while the central pastoral area suf- fered from it the most frequently, followed by the eastern pastoral, and the western pastoral area was the least.（2）The animal mortality in Inner Mongolia pastoral area had a very clear downward trend over time, but the downward trend of meteorological disaster indexes were not apparent, which explained that along with the level of productivity was rising, the capacity of grassland animal husbandry re- sist natural disasters had markedly enhanced, the animal mortality went down.