基于熵权的改进可拓方法在泥石流危险性评价中的应用

Application of Entropy-weight and Improved Extension Method to Debris Flow Risk Assessment

运用熵值法对泥石流危险性评价中涉及到的10项指标进行了权重赋值,避免了主观因素的影响。在此基础上应用改进可拓方法——最大贴近度法,所建立的区域泥石流危险性评价的可拓评价模型,可以解决泥石流危险性评价的多因素限制问题。通过云南34条典型泥石流沟危险性评价的实例分析,将得到的结果与传统方法进行比较,研究结果与相关文献结果评价情况相符程度为79.4%,偏差程度为20.6%。经过进一步对两种方法得到的泥石流危险性评价结果分析,结果表明两种方法在判定区域多条泥石流危险性排序方面结果的相关程度为0.896,研究结果与泥石流沟实际的危险性更加贴近。实例应用表明该方法不仅原理简单、计算简便,而且评价结果也是客观合理的,研究成果为区域(流域)泥石流沟危险性的综合评价和排序提供了新的思路。

By using entropy method for debris flow risk assessment are involved in the 10 indicators of weight assignment,avoid the influence of subjective factors. Based on the improved extension method – maximal adjacency degree method,the paper established the extension evaluation model of regional debris flow risk assessment,to solve the multi-factor limit problem of debris flow risk assessment. By the case of 34 typical debris flow gullies in Yunnan province analysis,risk evaluation will be comparing with the traditional method,the result of the research results and related documents evaluation situation match degree is 79. 4%,the degree of deviation of 20. 6%. After further analysis the debris flow risk assessment results of the two methods,the results show that correlation degree of the two methods in determining regional debris flow risk sorting the results is 0. 896,the results showed more close to the actual risk of debris flow gully. Also the application show that this method is not only simple principle,calculation is simple,but also evaluation result is objective and reasonable to provide a new method for regional（ basin） comprehensive evaluation and sorting of debris flow gully risk.