流动人口家庭化迁移影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors Influencing Family Migration in Floating Population

文章基于2012年江浙沪流动人口调查数据,使用Binary Logistic Regression模型,从家庭中劳动者个体、家庭和社会三个层面考察影响流动人口家庭化迁移的因素。在32 975个样本的基础之上,研究发现,人口流动呈现明显的家庭化特征,劳动者个人特征、家庭因素和社会结构要素等都对家庭化迁移的发生具有显著的影响。在劳动力个体因素中,女性,年龄小,教育程度较低,居留时间长,拥有自我决策行动能力的雇主和自营劳动者更倾向于发生家庭化迁移;在家庭影响因素中,婚姻关系和孩子的数量都会正向地影响家庭化迁移行为,流动人口家庭及其成员与家庭迁入地联系越密切,越容易发生家庭化迁移;在社会层次上的影响因素中,农业户口相对于非农业户口更倾向于发生家庭化迁移,经济发展水平越高的地区,越会吸引家庭化迁移。依据这些发现,新型城镇化建设中应该着重注意帮扶女性流动人口就业、推进社会融合、活跃中小城市经济三个方面。

Based on 2012 census data from Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, this article, using Binary Logistic Regression model, investigates and analyzes factors influencing family migration of migrant population from three levels of individual workers, their families and society. On the basis of over 32 975 samples, this study finds that population movements show obvious family characteristics, individual characteristics of workers, family and social structures are all factors for the occurrence of family migration. Individual factors in the labor force, women, younger, less educated, long residence time, the ability to self-determination act of employers and self-employed workers tend to make more family migration. Family factors, marriage relationship and number of children will positively influence the behavior of family migration. The more closely migrants and their family members link with the destination place, the more prone to domestic migration. In the community level, the families registered as rural residents are more likely to migrate than those registered as urban residents, the regions with higher level of economic development will have more attraction to family migration. On the basis of these findings, the new ur- banization should focus on helping women migrants＇ employment, promoting social integration and activating econ- omy of small cities.