基于风险管理方法的配网检修计划优化

Optimization of distribution network maintenance plan based on risk management method

针对配电网检修,提出了最优长期检修计划方法。该方法区别于传统的事故后检修和定期预防性检修的模式,对配网实行选择性的预防检修计划。基于风险管理方法,首先通过对元件失效率的解耦处理,进行风险识别实现了对单独风险因子的分析。然后通过建立决策树获得不同状态转换下的方案来进行风险评估,继而从经济角度出发,确定最优的配网检修计划来缓解风险。将该方法应用于美国PG&E 69节点配电系统,经过计算分析得到,相比于固定时间周期的大修或不执行任何检修,选择性的检修计划能大幅度减少检修所产生的费用和意外停电所产生的抢修费用,在理论上达到费用最省。

In view of the distribution network maintenance, this paper presents a methodology for optimal long-term maintenance schedule, which is different from traditional overhaul after accident and regular preventive annual maintenance model, adopting selective preventive maintenance plan to the distribution network. First of all, based on risk management methods, risk identification is done by decoupling components＇ failure rate to realize the analysis of individual risk factors; and then risk assessment is carried out by establishing decision tree to obtain different schemes under different state transitions, afterwards from the economic perspective, to determine the optimal maintenance plan to implement the risk mitigation. The proposed methodology is applied to PG＆E69 nodes distribution system in the United States, through calculation and analysis, it is demonstrated to be efficient compared to the fixed time periodic overhaul or maintenance which does not perform any activities, selective maintenance plan can significantly reduce the cost of maintenance and unexpected power outage, which attains minimum cost in theory.