2013年甘肃省甲型病毒性肝炎发病的空间聚集性分析

Spatial distribution of hepatitis A in Gansu,2013

目的运用空间统计学的方法描述并探讨2013年甘肃省甲型病毒型肝炎(甲肝)发病的空间分布特征。方法利用"全国传染病疫情信息网络直报系统"导出2013年甘肃省各区(县)甲肝发病数据、相应区(县)人口数等数据,运用空间统计软件分析甘肃省甲肝发病的空间相关性、空间聚集性特征。结果 2013年甘肃省甲肝报告发病率存在空间自相关性(P<0.001);局部空间自相关分析发现区域内存在"高-高"(或热点区域,主要分布于酒泉市、武威市、甘南州和临夏州部分县区)、"低-低"(或冷点区域,分布于嘉峪关市、张掖市、甘肃东部和南部部分县区)等关联模式的县(区),P<0.05;规则空间扫描结果显示甲肝发病最大可能聚集区为凉州区以及凉州区周边县区(RR=2.580,P=0.001)。结论 2013年甘肃省甲肝报告发病率呈非随机分布,武威市、临夏州和甘南州为甘肃省甲肝发病聚集区域,是甲肝的重点防控地区。

Objective To understand the spatial distribution of hepatitis A in Gansu province,2013,and provide evidence for hepatitis A prevention and control. Methods The incidence data of hepatitis A in Gansu were obtained from national disease reporting information system,and spatial statistic software was used to analysis the spatial autocorrelation and clustering of hepatitis A incidence. Results Reported hepatitis A incidence of Gansu in 2013 had spatial autocorrelation statistically（ P 0. 001）. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis identified high-high pattern area（ Jiuquan,Wuwei,Gannan,and part of Linxia） and low-lowpattern area（ Jiayuguan,Zhangye,part of eastern and southern Gansu）（ P 0. 05）. Sa TScan statistics results indicated that the mostly likely clustering of high hepatitis A incidence was in Liangzhou and surrounding counties（ RR = 2. 580,P = 0. 001）. Conclusion The spatial distribution of hepatitis A was not random in Gansu in 2013,the clustering of the disease were found in Wuwei,Linxia and Gannan,indicating hepatitis A surveillance should be strengthened in these areas.