北京市2013年1月雾霾天气事件中PM_(2.5)相关人群超额死亡风险评估

Air pollutant PM_(2.5) related excess mortality risk assessment in Beijing,January 2013

目的估算北京市2013年1月17-31日PM2.5相关的人群超额死亡风险。方法采用时间序列分析模型计算北京市2008-2011年间PM2.5对人群死亡的暴露-反应关系系数。应用比例风险模型估算北京市2013年1月17-31日（15-d）重度雾霾PM2.5污染造成的超额死亡风险,同时与2008-2011年1月17-31日的年均超额死亡风险比较分析。结果北京市2008-2011年间,PM2.5浓度每增加10μg/m3,人群总死亡风险增加0.28%（95%CI：0.18%~0.41%）,心脑血管系统疾病和呼吸系统疾病死亡风险分别增加0.32%（95%CI：0.16%~0.47%）和0.31%（95%CI：0.01%~0.63%）。北京市2013年1月雾霾天气PM2.5污染导致的超额死亡风险为164人/15-d,显著高于2008-2011年1月17-31日的15天超额死亡风险57人/15-d（χ2=51.800,P〈0.01）。朝阳区和海淀区超额死亡风险是10个区（县）中最高的。结论研究结果显示心脑血管和呼吸系统疾病是PM2.5污染的敏感性疾病。在重度雾霾天气期间,PM2.5可增加人群超额死亡风险,并表现出一定地区差异,以人口密集和污染浓度高的中心城区健康风险最高。

Objective To estimate the air pollutant PM2. 5related excess mortality risk assessment in Beijing during17- 31 January 2013 when serious haze weather attacked. Methods The exposure-response coefficient of PM2. 5on population mortality during 2008- 2011 was calculated by using a time series analysis model. The PM2. 5related excess mortality risk in Beijing during 17- 31 January 2013 was estimated by using a proportional risk model,the result was compared with that during the same periods from 2008 to 2011. Results An increase of 10 μg / m3 of PM2. 5concentration in air could cause an increase of 0. 28% of the overall mortality risk（ 95% CI： 0. 18%- 0. 41%）,an increase 0. 32% and 0. 31% of cardio-cerebro-vascular disease（ 95% CI： 0. 16%- 0. 47%） and respiratory disease（ 95%CI： 0. 01%- 0. 63%） respectively. The PM2. 5related excess mortality risk was 164 persons /15 days in Beijing during January 2013 when serious haze weather attacked,which was significantly higher that during the same periods from 2008 to 2011（ 57 persons /15 days）（ χ2= 51. 800,P 0. 01）. The PM2. 5related excess mortality risk was high in Chaoyang and Haidian districts. Conclusion Cardio-cerebro-vascular disease and respiratory disease are prone to occur due to serious air population weather. PM2. 5could increase the excess mortality risk in population,which could be high in urban area with dense population.