湖南省水稻生产优势县水稻生产风险评估

Rice Production Risk Assessment in Advantageous Rice Production Counties of Hunan Province

湖南省水稻种植面积和总产量均居我国各省、区之首,湖南水稻产量的稳定性对于保障国家粮食安全和水稻生产者的收益稳定性及生产积极性都很重要。运用综合比较优势指数法,选择了42个湖南省水稻生产优势县(市/区),利用非参数信息扩散模型对优势县早稻、中稻及一季晚稻、晚稻的减产率进行了估算。结果显示,在早稻生产中,13个考察县(市/区)水稻产量减产超过1%以上的概率小于50%;在中稻及一季晚稻生产中,16个考察县(市/区)水稻产量减产超过1%以上的概率小于50%;在晚稻生产中,7个考察县(市/区)水稻产量减产超过1%以上的概率小于50%。另一方面,以在田农作物产量损失达10%以上为农作物受灾标准,在早稻生产中,19个考察县(市/区)水稻生产受灾的概率几乎为零,可以忽略;在中稻及一季晚稻生产中,17个考察县(市/区)水稻生产受灾的概率可以忽略;在晚稻生产中,27个考察县(市/区)水稻生产受灾的概率可以忽略。以上结果充分说明湖南省水稻生产优势县的水稻生产所面临的生产风险处于合理区间。

Hunan province is the biggest province in planting area and total yield of rice in China,the stabilization of rice yield in Hunan province is important for both food safety of China and income stability of local rice produc-er.Comprehensive comparative advantage index method is employed in this research,and 42 counties were selected as ad-vantageous rice production counties.Then reduction rate in rice yield of early season rice,medium rice,single -season rice and late rice in Hunan province was estimated by non parametric information diffusion model.The results showed that the possibility was less than 50% for rice yield reduction rate greater than 1% in 13 selected counties for early season rice pro-duction,and that for medium rice and single -season late rice production was 16,and that for late rice production was 7.Yield reduction greater than 10% was called “crop damage”in China.In this research,the possibility for appearance of crop damage in early rice production was nearly close to zero in 19 counties of selected counties,and that for medium rice and single -season late rice production and late rice production was 17 and 27,respectively.These results indicated that rice production risk in advantageous rice production counties of Hunan Province was in the reasonable range.