南宁1990—2012年碳足迹动态分析

A Dynamic Analysis of Carbon Footprint in Nanning City from 1990 to 2012

文章采用IPCC和中国《省级温室气体编制指南》推荐的方法对南宁1990—2012年的碳足迹进行了动态分析。研究发现,1990—2012年南宁的碳足迹处于较低水平,但波动上升,增幅为441.0%,年均增幅为20.08%。碳足迹构成上,各部门所占比重由大到小依次是农业部门(60.16%)>能源部门(30.63%)>水泥工业部门(12.76%)>废物处理部门(3.32%),且都大于植被固碳(-6.87%)。由此可见南宁碳足迹主要是由农业生产和化石能源燃烧引起。人均和单位面积碳足迹增幅分别为323.51%和441.82%;万元GDP碳足迹降低了41.0%;能源强度波动下降。温室气体排放指数从0.04波动增加到0.20,1990年排放等级为很低(Ⅰb),1991—2011年为较低(Ⅰc),2012年为中下(Ⅱa)。

This paper analyzed carbon footprint in Nanning from 1990 to 2012 by using the methods recommended by the IPCC and A Guide to the Provincial Greenhouse Gases Inventories in China. The study has found that from 1990 to 2012,Nanning carbon footprint is at a low level,but the volatility rises,with an increase of 441.0 percent and an average annual increase of 20.08%. From the component of carbon footprint,proportion of every sector decreases in the following order：The agricultural sector （60.15%）, energy sector （30.63%）,cement industry （12.75%）,waste treatment sector （3.32%）,and vegetation carbon （-5.87%）. It proves that the increases of agricultural production and fossil energy consumption are the primary causes of carbon footprint increases of Nanning City. Carbon footprint per capita and per unit increases by 323.51% and 441.82% respectively,while carbon footprint per ten thousand Yuan decreases 41.0%. Energy intensity presents a fluctuant decreasing. Greenhouse gases emissions index has increased from 0.04 to 0.20. The grade of greenhouse gases emissions is at a very low level （Ib） in 1990,Iow level （Ic） from 1991 to 2011 ,and below-average level （IIa） at 2012.