基于业扩报装大数据的电量预测方法

Forecasting Method of Electricity Consumption Based on Business Expansion Big Data

近年来,受经济形势的影响,江苏业扩报装容量增长率波动较为明显,对江苏省用电量增长造成一定的影响。为准确把握江苏省下阶段用电情况走势,支撑公司经营与发展战略,文章对全省历史业扩报装大数据进行分析,研究业扩报装情况、运行容量、负荷利用率、用电量之间的关联关系,用于预测业扩导致的电量增长。典型行业的业扩报装案例分析表明,文章提出的基于业扩信息的电量预测方法效果良好,能够提高江苏省电量预测精确度,从而为电网调度、运行提供有力的技术支撑。

In recent years, influenced by the economic situation, the growth rate of Jiangsu business expansion capacity fl uctuates greatly, which causes certain infl uence on the electricity consumption growth in Jiangsu province. In order to accurately predict the trend of electricity consumption in the next stage of Jiangsu province and to support company management and development strategy, historical business expansion big data is analyzed in this paper. The relationship among electricity consumption, business expansion situation, operation capacity, utilization rate of load are investigated to predict the power growth which caused by business expansion. Typical business expansion application results show the proposed method can improve the accuracy of electricity consumption forecasting, and furthermore provide technical support for power grid scheduling and operation.