一种基于故障统计数据的发动机风险预测

Risk Prediction of Aero-Engine Based on Failure Statistic Data

给出了发动机故障危险等级划分、危险系数确定、风险因子与飞行风险的计算方法,建立了基于蒙特卡罗仿真的发动机多故障模式风险评估流程,预测发动机故障发生情况,评估发动机使用阶段的故障风险。在已有航空发动机历史故障数据的基础上,对多种故障模式进行了风险预测,制定了两种可降低风险的方案,分析了维修周期对风险因子的影响,给出了合理的降低风险方案。

The classification of failure risk level, the determination of hazard ratio, and the calculation of the risk factor and risk per flight are proposed. The risk assessment process for aero-engine multi-failure mode is presented based on the Monte Carlo simulation to predict the occurrence of the failure and assess the failure risk. According to the history aero-engine failure data, the risk of multi-failure is predicted. Two corrective actions are presented to reduce risk occurence probability. The most reasonable action is established according to the analysis of the influence of different maintenance interval on risk factor.