1951—2013年河南省降水量时空变化特征

Temporal-spatial Variation Characteristics of Rainfall in Henan Province During 1951-2013

本研究选取1951—2013年河南省18个观测站月观测降水量数据为研究对象,运用小波分析、Mann-Kendall线性趋势检验、降水量变率、累积距平等方法,分析河南省降水量及800 mm等降水量线时空演化规律。结果表明：过去63年,（1）河南省年和四季降水量具有不显著减少趋势,夏季降水量变化控制年降水量变化,发生旱灾的程度高于洪灾;（2）年和四季降水量存在2~3年、准4.5年和准6年的振荡周期,可能与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动有关;（3）年和四季降水量自东南向西北逐渐减少,大部分地区年和四季降水量均具有减少趋势;（4）将800 mm等降水量线作为中国南北方分界线显得单薄,需要寻找更多的代用指标,综合分析南北方分界线具体走向及宽度范围。

The data of monthly rainfall, observed from 18 stations of Henan Province during 1951-2013, wereselected as the subject for analyzing the temporal-spatial characteristics of Henan rainfall and 800 mm rainfallline, with wavelet analysis, Mann- Kendall test, rainfall variability and cumulative departure methods. Theresults showed that：（1） the rainfall of annual and four seasons had non-significant decreasing trend in HenanProvince, the variations of annual rainfall was primarily controlled by the summer rainfall, the extent of droughtwas bigger than that of flood;（2） there were typical oscillations with 2-3 a, approximate 4.5 a and 6 a cycles inthe annual and seasonal mean precipitation variation, which were possibly relate to the El Nino/SouthernOscillation;（3） the rainfall of annual and four seasons decreased from southeast to northwest, and most areas ofHenan Province had a decreasing trend;（4） only regarding the 800 mm rainfall as the separatrix of southernand northern China seemed to be insufficient, more substitute indexes were needed to comprehensively analyzethe specific trend and width range.