大连地区气温的统计特征及数值预报检验

Statistical Characteristics and Numerical Forecast Verification of Maximum and Minimum Temperature in Dalian Area

为了提高大连地区温度预报的准确率,笔者利用2003—2013年大连地区自动站温度资料、2013年6种数值预报产品以及大连市气象台预报的产品,统计2003—2012年10年7站20—20时最高、最低温度在不同季节的出现时间的频率,对2013年数值预报产品进行温度检验,检验时效为24 h。结果表明:大连地区最高、最低温度出现时间的频率分布均呈双峰型,最高温度多出现在14时和21时,最低温度多出现在5时—8时和21时;在6种数值预报产品中,一般是SCMOC对南部地区的温度预报的较好,对北部地区的温度来说是ECMWF预报的相对较好,而且整体上最高温度的正确率总是低于最低温度的正确率。

The paper aims to improve the accuracy of temperature forecast in Dalian Area, the frequencydistribution of the occurrence time of the maximum and minimum temperature in different seasons wereanalyzed using automatic station temperature data of Dalian Area in 2003- 2012 and the automatic stationtemperature data, the products of ECMWF, SCMOC, SLMOF, T639, STOBJ, WRF and SPCC in 2013 wereused to test temperature forecast in Dalian Area, the time span of forecast was 24 hours. The results showedthat the frequency distribution of the occurrence time of the maximum and minimum temperature was abimodal. The maximum（minimum） temperature appeared at 14：00 and 21：00（5：00- 8：00 and 21：00）. Fortemperature forecast, SCMOC had better forecast effect than other products in the south of Dalian Area, andECMWF performed better than others in the north of Dalian Area. The correct rate of the maximumtemperature was always smaller than that of the minimum temperature.