北京城市客运能源消耗与环境排放的情景预测

Scenario prediction of the energy consumption and the environmental emissions of Beijing urban passenger transport

为预测未来城市客运交通能源消耗与环境排放情况,以瑞典、美国开发的模型"长期能源替代规划"(LEAP)为工具,在北京市现有城市交通规划及政策框架内,设置了4种情景:"基准情景"(BAU)、"发展公共交通情景"、"新能源汽车推广情景"、"最佳情景"(P&N),以2012年为基准期,以2015—2030年为预测期,分析能源消耗及污染气体(CO2、CO、CH4、N2O、NOX、SO2)排放情景。结果显示:发展公共交通的节能效果优于推广新能源汽车,后者的SO2减排效果更显著;与基准情景相比,2030年最佳情景可节能45.20%,排放量为2012年的47.05%。因此,该方案减排效果突出,其中SO2的减排效果最佳。

The situation of energy consumption and environmental emissions of CO2, CO, CH4, N20, NOx, and SO2 was analyzed for the base year 2012 and extrapolated till 2030 for the future predictions within the framework of the existing urban transport planning and policy in Beijing. Using a computer software called Long- Range Energy Alternatives Planning System （LEAP） model, USA, established four scenarios of the ＂Business As Usual （BAU）＂, the ＂Public Transport＂, the ＂New Energy Vehicle＂, and the ＂Public transport and New energy vehicle＂ （P＆N）. The results of scenario analysis show that with respect to energy saving, the public transport scenario conducts better than the new energy vehicles scenario, however, the new energy vehicle scenario performs better than the public transport scenario with respect to the reduction of SO2 emission. Scenario 4 will success to save 45.20% of energy consumption by 2030 compare to BAU, and only emission 47.05% of the emissions in 2012, so, it has an excellent potential of environmental emissions reduction, especially for SO2 emission.