基于GVAR模型的我国省际间财政支出波动的溢出效应研究

Study on the Provincial Fiscal Expenditure Spillovers in China Based on a GVAR Model

我国省级财政支出长期以来的联动扩张和地方政府自主发债的逐步开闸,使得地方财政风险的控制面临巨大的挑战。文章以我国28个省、自治区、直辖市为样本,基于全局向量自回归模型,研究了我国省际间1985—2012年一对一财政支出的动态溢出效应特点及其机制。研究表明:从受溢效应看,接受中央财政转移支付强度最大的西北地区最容易受到其他省份财政支出波动的影响,面临更大的财政风险;从溢出效应看,人口流动更为频繁省份的财政支出波动会对其他省份产生强烈且普遍的支出冲击。这暗示除传统的经济争胜外,对人口和中央财政转移支付等优质资源的争夺也是造成我国省际间财政支出空间溢出效应的重要原因之一。

With the municipal bonds being opened up and the interactive fiscal expenditure expansion of dif- ferent provinces, there is a growing risk of local fiscal risk. Under this background, this paper selected the fiscal expenditure and related economic variables of 28 regions in China from 1985--2012 as the research object and used GIRFs in GVAR model, thereby investigated a various dynamic expenditure spillover shapes among different provinces and the mechanism behind these shapes. The empirical results show that the northwest with the highest central transfer payments are most vulnerable to the effects of expenditure fluctuations of other provinces, leading to a greater fiscal risk. Besides, the expenditure fluctuations of provinces with the most frequent population flows, such as Beijing and Anhui, make the strongest and most common impact on other provinces. All these result suggest that except the GDP race, the battle for population and central transfer payments among local governments also leads to the fiscal expenditure spillovers in China.