后伊核时期的美伊关系走向

US-Iran relations post-nuclear deal

伊朗核协议的签署,创造了通过和平谈判维护核不扩散体系的先例,将改变中东地区的地缘政治版图,具有历史性的意义。虽然未来协议的命运仍面临不少不确定因素,伊朗核协议的执行出现反复乃至逆转的可能性不能排除,但是对美国来说,要解决伊朗核问题,妥协、谈判是唯一的明智的选择。在美伊关系处于非敌非友的后伊核时期,美国将以最低的代价维系它对中东局势的主导权,同时为欧盟、俄罗斯、中国在伊朗和中东地区展开博弈提供了足够的空间。

The agreement as fi nalized would create a precedent of historic signifi cance, namely of protecting the nuclear non-proliferation system by peaceful negotiation and thereby changing the geopolitical map of the Middle East. The fate of the agreement is still open to many uncertainties, and whether it is being implemented may come up so often that undoing of the agreement can＇t be ruled out, but for the United States compromise and negotiation have been the only sensible choice for resolving the Iranian nuclear issue. After the deal US-Iran relations still won＇t be very clearly distinguishable as friendly or adversarial, but the US will have maintained its leading role in Middle Eastern affairs at the lowest cost. Meanwhile, the agreement will provide enough room for rivalry in Iran and the Middle East between the EU, Russia and China.